As much as all of you can appreciate my long-term view of the US Dollar – It’s bounce time.
I still expect further movement “lower” in USD but see that we are clearly on “Day 1” of a new daily cycle. The daily cycle in USD usually runs somewhere around 18 days, and in this case ( being that we expect a failed cycle ) I imagine things to top out on ( or around ) day 6-8.
I’m not taking these trades, as I just cashed in on this most recent leg lower but if you are so inclined then I would suggest.
Short GBP/USD with stops a good 50 pips above 1.43
Short EUR/USD with stops above 1.14
Long USD/JPY with stops below 1.08
And maybe even a flyer on Long USD/CAD with stops below 1.0750
A good 5 days should provide you with ample room / time to put some money in the bank, but much longer than that and you’ll be seeing my next entry SHORT.
Markets are a gong show of complacency these days, and in all…..are difficult to even debate. It’s my feelings that the entire year of 2015 has been spent in “distribution mode” while the big boys hand over the bag to unsuspecting retail traders. I can’t imagine it lasting much longer, but of course you’ve got the damn American elections coming and it’s always tough to gauge.
Looking relatively short term…..I imagine when my next USD Short kicks in we’ll be getting close to May where the upside in risk is clearly limited. We’ll take it a couple of days at a time but…. can’t imagine much in the way of profits buying stocks “anywhere” in here these days.
Protect what you’ve got, and don’t go buying the news…now is a time to be lightening up – not loading up!