A fantastic start to the new year with equity markets in particular – showing their hands early.
Today looks fantastic as currency markets are essentially `giving us the day to catch up`….with little movement in USD itself – but OBVIOUS movement in JPY as risk sells off hard.
You guys know this…..this should look very straight forward at this point as the clear trade is still Long JPY vs Commods….as well short USD coming up here again soon.
These pairs are a given as risk falls off the cliff, while we get another full day ( or two more perhaps ) before USD rolls over and `those` pairs get added to the pile.
I wish it was more exciting at times too folks…however after a time…this just gets redundant.
We are going lower…..days lower…….weeks lower.
Tomorrow is suicide….I won’t be participating as these last weeks profits will clearly do.
We will look at things after the smoke clears – as always.
I’d have to say….a good half ( if not 3/4 ) of trading comes from knowing when “not to trade” though most never get to this point chasing dreams of turning 2k into retirement.
You need to be in the game long enough to know what “not to do” – and it comes at a cost.
2k doesn’t even come close.
Sit tight….take whatever profits you have ( or move stops ) and celebrate.
I’ve just been through a large scale battle with my hosting company as the site has been down repeatedly over the past few days and even weeks.
Apparently – I’ve been hacked.
I hope most of you have made the effort to pop over to the blog……the short call on USD came out Monday.
Things look to be back on track here now folks. Drop me a line at info “at” forexkong.com if you’re totally pissed. I will make concerted effort to talk you down.
I’ve been travelling. I’ve missed nothing.
I got smoked on the last few days of this “bear market rally” and feel that what’s really required here is perspective and reflection.
The endless debate as to whether markets will continue higher – or not.
I’m obviously in the “not” camp as………this never ending hold the Fed has on markets based on the “potential” of rate hikes to follow…..has to end soon.
I predict “negative interest rates” and further QE to follow….but can’t rule out a “token raise” in December although…I find it unlikely.
The U.S is completely and totally “f#^cked” and the fact that 2016 is an election year certainly clouds the issue at hand. A very tough environment to “trade” but not so tough to “un invest”.
I am short as short can be as the strength of USD only serves to kill risk appetite with U.S exports tanking…and the underlying fundamentals in shambles.
It’s tough on short termers for sure…….but for me? Huuuuuuuge weekly candle on SP 500 and Dow…..a lower high on weekly….and a great place to stick with the plan “again”.
We near the end of a massive bear market rally before global economy dives into recession. How long they can prop it up – always the question but…..you can’t time a full year of “sideways”.
I’m not budging. I’m short risk “again”.
Forgive me for the lack of tradeable information over the past week but……it is what it is.
You can’t get blood from a stone, and all it takes is a look at a daily chart of “anything” USD related to get the general gist of things.
Flat as a pancake….moving in range and gobbling up eager young traders looking for an edge, where no edge can be found.
The USD dollar’ previous cycle signaled a failed daily cycle and is already five days into yet another cycle soon to fail. So……Monday at the latest….we see the US Dollar swing high, and we again initiate the same series of trades, although THIS TIME…..I expect the move to be larger..breaking out of this range and FINALLY much lower in both USD and RISK.
Boring as hell……but waiting for these moves and remaining short risk has been the most profitable trades out there.
This next one should be a doozy.
I am adding to existing positions short usd and long jpy late today / after data dump tomorrow morning.
USD has shown a failed daily cycle, and I expect risk to come off HARD here soon.
This has been slow….but playing out exactly as planned – deep in profit in EUR as well GBP.
Great entries long JPY up here vs Commods if you are not already in.
I expect we head well below “the lows” in SPY and the works!
I’m sure you’ve all noticed that The U.S Dollar IS NOT moving higher along side U.S Equities.
Stocks have now hit the top of the range ( around 1990 ish ) where they have been turned back two times here in recent weeks.
I’m sitting on all current trades….and not worried in the slightest.
I’ve taken first set of entries in all pairs everyone.
Same drill. We get short risk – you know the ones.
As tempting as it is ( considering that U.S data was weak, and Russia has re entered the news in Syria ) I’m still planning to sit tight here this morning.
I like the 85.00 handle in AUD/JPY as a near term high ( one could get short here with stops 50 pips above 85 ) but don’t see that I’ll miss anything here today.
With markets still in such a state of “indecision” is there really a point in pushing your luck? We could just as easily see another “huge” up day in RISK before the next leg down begins.
EUR/USD bottom around 1.1150 and GBP/USD around 1.51 both look reasonable but again……I don’t see any reason to jump on them today.
Keep these levels in mind, and sit tight. Wait for a larger move lower “first” – then plan to get on board.
Timing is tough when things are moving flat….and I generally like to see the market show it’s hand “first” – then make my move.
Depending on your trading style, you may or may not want to take profits on JPY pairs here and also considering dumping the USD’s.
I have done both…expecting a few days bounce here and ( yes if you can believe it ) then preparing for re-entry SHORT risk.
The waterfall has not yet materialized, and a few days higher / sideways looks to be in the cards “prior”.
I still strongly expect another “serious leg down” in risk / SPY as investors will likely panic with the onset of a couple more large down days. I’m talking about waterfall action down to 1700 S & P type thing….with the U. S Dollar “finally” going down along with it.
JPY vs Commods will be another obvious re-entry, and I will be looking for LARGE SCALE gains here…..but will likely be waiting a couple of days first.
No question these huge daily moves have made it difficult for anyone without the ability to trade wide…..as currency pairs can easily fluctuate up to 100 pips overnight.
You can’t make these calls intra day…..its impossible….so you do you best to pick a direction and stick to it.
My direction is DOWN……and I will be re-entering shortly.